He just published a book about why so many predictions fail.
Political junkies, activists, strategists, and journalists will gain a deeper and more sobering sense of Silver’s methods in The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t (Penguin Press). …Its most important message is that the first step toward improving our predictions is learning how to live with uncertainty. The second step is starting to understand why it is that big data, super computers, and mathematical sophistication haven’t made us better at separating signals (information with true predictive value) from noise (misleading information).
Also, you should follow him on Tweeter @fivethirtyeight. Or read his bliggety blog. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
